Independent open-data platform. Sources: NOAA, IRI and national weather agencies.

El Niño Observatory

⚠ El Niño conditions are present and being monitored· Intensifying · Pacific +2.1 °C above normal

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Today's AI analysis

July 25, 2026

The equatorial Pacific remains warmer than normal, a typical El Niño condition. Historically that shifts rainfall worldwide: floods in some regions, drought in others. Follow your national weather service for official warnings.

Generated daily from the latest NOAA readings, in plain language.

El Niñovery strongIntensifying+2.1 °C vs. 1991–2020 averageONI +0.98 · AMJ 202676% of the strongest event on record (2014–16)Data refreshes every 6 hours from NOAA CPC

In plain terms

The Pacific is +2.1 °C warmer than normal (very strong El Niño). It is still warming: each of the last two months ran hotter than the one before. Events that develop like this one historically peak between November and January, with impacts continuing for months after.

Show the full model chart ▾

Each line in the chart below is one forecast model. Where the lines bunch together, confidence is higher; where they spread, less so.

IRI ENSO prediction plume, June 2026
IRI ENSO prediction plume, issued June 2026. Each line is one model's forecast. Spread between models indicates uncertainty. Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, in collaboration with NOAA CPC.

Live winds and temperature

Interactive visualization: Windy.com. ECMWF model.

GOES-19 satellite imagery (NOAA)

GOES-19: South America: north
South America: north
GOES-19: South America: south
South America: south

GeoColor imagery from the GOES-19 satellite, NOAA/NESDIS. Updated every 10 minutes.

Emergency numbers

Who to call during floods, fires or storm emergencies, based on your location.

Civil defense199Fire department193Ambulance192Police190

Numbers are national defaults; some regions use local variants. Confirm with local authorities.

Projected impact zones

Canonical El Niño teleconnections weighted by current event intensity. Search for your city or neighborhood to check local exposure.

Risk type
Flooding / extreme rain
Drought / water / fire risk
Storms / coastal hazards
See the zone-by-zone outlook (AI)▾

Region-by-region assessment generated from the latest NOAA readings

Peru & Ecuador coast

Risk 3/3

Peru & Ecuador coast

Warm coastal waters drive torrential rain, flash floods and landslides. Historically the hardest-hit zone of any El Niño.

Southern Brazil, Uruguay & NE Argentina

Risk 3/3

Southern Brazil, Uruguay & NE Argentina

A strengthened subtropical jet brings persistent extreme rainfall. The 2023-24 Rio Grande do Sul floods are the canonical signature.

Amazon & Northeast Brazil

Risk 3/3

Amazon & Northeast Brazil

Suppressed convection brings severe drought, record-low rivers, fires and crop failure across the Amazon basin and the semi-arid Northeast.

Colombia & Venezuela

Risk 2/3

Colombia & Venezuela

Below-normal rainfall stresses hydropower reservoirs and agriculture; heightened wildfire risk in the Andean valleys.

Central America: Dry Corridor

Risk 2/3

Central America: Dry Corridor

Failed rains across the Dry Corridor threaten subsistence maize and bean harvests, deepening food insecurity.

Indonesia & Malaysia

Risk 3/3

Indonesia & Malaysia

Severe drought dries peatlands, fuelling large-scale forest fires and transboundary haze; rice and palm yields fall.

Eastern Australia

Risk 2/3

Eastern Australia

Reduced rainfall and heatwaves raise bushfire danger and strain water supplies along the populous east coast.

India & Pakistan: monsoon region

Risk 2/3

India & Pakistan: monsoon region

El Niño years tend to weaken the southwest monsoon, cutting rainfall over the agricultural heartland and stressing water and power supplies.

Philippines

Risk 2/3

Philippines

Delayed rains and stronger dry season hit rice production and hydropower; water rationing is common in strong events.

Southern United States

Risk 2/3

Southern United States

A stronger subtropical jet steers wetter, stormier winters across California and the Gulf Coast, with flood and severe-weather episodes.

Horn of Africa

Risk 2/3

Horn of Africa

Enhanced short rains bring flooding to Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia's lowlands, often after preceding drought, compounding displacement.

Southern Africa

Risk 2/3

Southern Africa

Summer rains fail across the maize belt. South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Mozambique face crop losses and power-supply stress.

Northern & Central Mexico

Risk 2/3

Northern & Central Mexico

El Niño winters tend to bring drought and heat to northern and central Mexico, stressing reservoirs, agriculture and city water supplies.

Mainland Southeast Asia

Risk 2/3

Mainland Southeast Asia

Documented El Niño droughts hit the Mekong basin: low rivers, saltwater intrusion in the delta, rice and water stress in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos.

Generated daily by google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite via OpenRouter from live NOAA data. Experimental, not an official forecast. Consult your national meteorological service and civil defense. AI outlook is being generated. Baseline climatological assessment shown.

History and technical data

ONI history: 1980 to present

Every bar is a 3-month season. Red above +0.5 °C is El Niño territory; blue below −0.5 °C is La Niña. Source: NOAA CPC.

+2+1.5+1+0.50-0.5-1-1.5-2El Niño ≥ +0.5 °CLa Niña ≤ −0.5 °CDJF 1980: +0.59 °CJFM 1980: +0.46 °CFMA 1980: +0.34 °CMAM 1980: +0.38 °CAMJ 1980: +0.48 °CMJJ 1980: +0.46 °CJJA 1980: +0.25 °CJAS 1980: +0.03 °CASO 1980: -0.07 °CSON 1980: +0.02 °COND 1980: +0.11 °CNDJ 1980: -0.01 °CDJF 1981: -0.26 °CJFM 1981: -0.50 °CFMA 1981: -0.47 °CMAM 1981: -0.37 °CAMJ 1981: -0.26 °CMJJ 1981: -0.29 °CJJA 1981: -0.30 °CJAS 1981: -0.25 °CASO 1981: -0.16 °CSON 1981: -0.13 °COND 1981: -0.15 °CNDJ 1981: -0.08 °CDJF 1982: -0.05 °CJFM 1982: +0.07 °CFMA 1982: +0.19 °CMAM 1982: +0.47 °CAMJ 1982: +0.66 °CMJJ 1982: +0.72 °CJJA 1982: +0.79 °CJAS 1982: +1.07 °CASO 1982: +1.58 °CSON 1982: +1.97 °COND 1982: +2.18 °CNDJ 1982: +2.23 °CDJF 1983: +2.18 °CJFM 1983: +1.92 °CFMA 1983: +1.54 °CMAM 1983: +1.29 °CAMJ 1983: +1.06 °CMJJ 1983: +0.72 °CJJA 1983: +0.31 °CJAS 1983: -0.08 °CASO 1983: -0.46 °CSON 1983: -0.81 °COND 1983: -1.00 °CNDJ 1983: -0.91 °CDJF 1984: -0.60 °CJFM 1984: -0.42 °CFMA 1984: -0.34 °CMAM 1984: -0.43 °CAMJ 1984: -0.51 °CMJJ 1984: -0.45 °CJJA 1984: -0.30 °CJAS 1984: -0.16 °CASO 1984: -0.24 °CSON 1984: -0.56 °COND 1984: -0.92 °CNDJ 1984: -1.14 °CDJF 1985: -1.04 °CJFM 1985: -0.85 °CFMA 1985: -0.77 °CMAM 1985: -0.78 °CAMJ 1985: -0.78 °CMJJ 1985: -0.63 °CJJA 1985: -0.49 °CJAS 1985: -0.46 °CASO 1985: -0.40 °CSON 1985: -0.35 °COND 1985: -0.27 °CNDJ 1985: -0.36 °CDJF 1986: -0.49 °CJFM 1986: -0.47 °CFMA 1986: -0.31 °CMAM 1986: -0.20 °CAMJ 1986: -0.12 °CMJJ 1986: -0.04 °CJJA 1986: +0.22 °CJAS 1986: +0.44 °CASO 1986: +0.71 °CSON 1986: +0.94 °COND 1986: +1.14 °CNDJ 1986: +1.22 °CDJF 1987: +1.23 °CJFM 1987: +1.19 °CFMA 1987: +1.06 °CMAM 1987: +0.95 °CAMJ 1987: +0.97 °CMJJ 1987: +1.22 °CJJA 1987: +1.51 °CJAS 1987: +1.70 °CASO 1987: +1.65 °CSON 1987: +1.48 °COND 1987: +1.25 °CNDJ 1987: +1.11 °CDJF 1988: +0.81 °CJFM 1988: +0.54 °CFMA 1988: +0.14 °CMAM 1988: -0.31 °CAMJ 1988: -0.88 °CMJJ 1988: -1.30 °CJJA 1988: -1.30 °CJAS 1988: -1.11 °CASO 1988: -1.19 °CSON 1988: -1.48 °COND 1988: -1.80 °CNDJ 1988: -1.85 °CDJF 1989: -1.69 °CJFM 1989: -1.43 °CFMA 1989: -1.08 °CMAM 1989: -0.83 °CAMJ 1989: -0.58 °CMJJ 1989: -0.40 °CJJA 1989: -0.31 °CJAS 1989: -0.27 °CASO 1989: -0.24 °CSON 1989: -0.22 °COND 1989: -0.16 °CNDJ 1989: -0.05 °CDJF 1990: +0.14 °CJFM 1990: +0.21 °CFMA 1990: +0.28 °CMAM 1990: +0.29 °CAMJ 1990: +0.29 °CMJJ 1990: +0.31 °CJJA 1990: +0.33 °CJAS 1990: +0.38 °CASO 1990: +0.39 °CSON 1990: +0.35 °COND 1990: +0.40 °CNDJ 1990: +0.41 °CDJF 1991: +0.41 °CJFM 1991: +0.26 °CFMA 1991: +0.22 °CMAM 1991: +0.26 °CAMJ 1991: +0.45 °CMJJ 1991: +0.64 °CJJA 1991: +0.73 °CJAS 1991: +0.64 °CASO 1991: +0.62 °CSON 1991: +0.79 °COND 1991: +1.21 °CNDJ 1991: +1.53 °CDJF 1992: +1.71 °CJFM 1992: +1.63 °CFMA 1992: +1.48 °CMAM 1992: +1.29 °CAMJ 1992: +1.06 °CMJJ 1992: +0.73 °CJJA 1992: +0.37 °CJAS 1992: +0.09 °CASO 1992: -0.13 °CSON 1992: -0.25 °COND 1992: -0.28 °CNDJ 1992: -0.13 °CDJF 1993: +0.09 °CJFM 1993: +0.30 °CFMA 1993: +0.50 °CMAM 1993: +0.67 °CAMJ 1993: +0.70 °CMJJ 1993: +0.57 °CJJA 1993: +0.32 °CJAS 1993: +0.25 °CASO 1993: +0.15 °CSON 1993: +0.10 °COND 1993: +0.04 °CNDJ 1993: +0.06 °CDJF 1994: +0.06 °CJFM 1994: +0.07 °CFMA 1994: +0.17 °CMAM 1994: +0.31 °CAMJ 1994: +0.42 °CMJJ 1994: +0.41 °CJJA 1994: +0.44 °CJAS 1994: +0.43 °CASO 1994: +0.55 °CSON 1994: +0.74 °COND 1994: +1.01 °CNDJ 1994: +1.09 °CDJF 1995: +0.96 °CJFM 1995: +0.72 °CFMA 1995: +0.53 °CMAM 1995: +0.30 °CAMJ 1995: +0.14 °CMJJ 1995: -0.03 °CJJA 1995: -0.24 °CJAS 1995: -0.54 °CASO 1995: -0.81 °CSON 1995: -0.97 °COND 1995: -1.00 °CNDJ 1995: -0.98 °CDJF 1996: -0.90 °CJFM 1996: -0.75 °CFMA 1996: -0.59 °CMAM 1996: -0.39 °CAMJ 1996: -0.31 °CMJJ 1996: -0.30 °CJJA 1996: -0.27 °CJAS 1996: -0.32 °CASO 1996: -0.35 °CSON 1996: -0.40 °COND 1996: -0.45 °CNDJ 1996: -0.49 °CDJF 1997: -0.50 °CJFM 1997: -0.36 °CFMA 1997: -0.10 °CMAM 1997: +0.28 °CAMJ 1997: +0.75 °CMJJ 1997: +1.22 °CJJA 1997: +1.60 °CJAS 1997: +1.90 °CASO 1997: +2.14 °CSON 1997: +2.33 °COND 1997: +2.40 °CNDJ 1997: +2.39 °CDJF 1998: +2.24 °CJFM 1998: +1.93 °CFMA 1998: +1.44 °CMAM 1998: +0.99 °CAMJ 1998: +0.45 °CMJJ 1998: -0.13 °CJJA 1998: -0.78 °CJAS 1998: -1.12 °CASO 1998: -1.31 °CSON 1998: -1.35 °COND 1998: -1.48 °CNDJ 1998: -1.57 °CDJF 1999: -1.55 °CJFM 1999: -1.30 °CFMA 1999: -1.07 °CMAM 1999: -0.98 °CAMJ 1999: -1.02 °CMJJ 1999: -1.04 °CJJA 1999: -1.10 °CJAS 1999: -1.11 °CASO 1999: -1.16 °CSON 1999: -1.26 °COND 1999: -1.46 °CNDJ 1999: -1.65 °CDJF 2000: -1.66 °CJFM 2000: -1.41 °CFMA 2000: -1.07 °CMAM 2000: -0.81 °CAMJ 2000: -0.71 °CMJJ 2000: -0.64 °CJJA 2000: -0.55 °CJAS 2000: -0.51 °CASO 2000: -0.55 °CSON 2000: -0.63 °COND 2000: -0.75 °CNDJ 2000: -0.74 °CDJF 2001: -0.68 °CJFM 2001: -0.52 °CFMA 2001: -0.44 °CMAM 2001: -0.34 °CAMJ 2001: -0.25 °CMJJ 2001: -0.12 °CJJA 2001: -0.08 °CJAS 2001: -0.13 °CASO 2001: -0.19 °CSON 2001: -0.29 °COND 2001: -0.35 °CNDJ 2001: -0.31 °CDJF 2002: -0.15 °CJFM 2002: +0.03 °CFMA 2002: +0.09 °CMAM 2002: +0.20 °CAMJ 2002: +0.43 °CMJJ 2002: +0.65 °CJJA 2002: +0.79 °CJAS 2002: +0.86 °CASO 2002: +1.01 °CSON 2002: +1.21 °COND 2002: +1.31 °CNDJ 2002: +1.14 °CDJF 2003: +0.92 °CJFM 2003: +0.63 °CFMA 2003: +0.38 °CMAM 2003: -0.04 °CAMJ 2003: -0.26 °CMJJ 2003: -0.16 °CJJA 2003: +0.08 °CJAS 2003: +0.21 °CASO 2003: +0.26 °CSON 2003: +0.29 °COND 2003: +0.35 °CNDJ 2003: +0.35 °CDJF 2004: +0.37 °CJFM 2004: +0.31 °CFMA 2004: +0.23 °CMAM 2004: +0.17 °CAMJ 2004: +0.17 °CMJJ 2004: +0.28 °CJJA 2004: +0.47 °CJAS 2004: +0.64 °CASO 2004: +0.70 °CSON 2004: +0.67 °COND 2004: +0.66 °CNDJ 2004: +0.69 °CDJF 2005: +0.64 °CJFM 2005: +0.58 °CFMA 2005: +0.45 °CMAM 2005: +0.43 °CAMJ 2005: +0.29 °CMJJ 2005: +0.11 °CJJA 2005: -0.06 °CJAS 2005: -0.14 °CASO 2005: -0.11 °CSON 2005: -0.29 °COND 2005: -0.57 °CNDJ 2005: -0.84 °CDJF 2006: -0.85 °CJFM 2006: -0.77 °CFMA 2006: -0.57 °CMAM 2006: -0.37 °CAMJ 2006: -0.14 °CMJJ 2006: -0.03 °CJJA 2006: +0.10 °CJAS 2006: +0.30 °CASO 2006: +0.54 °CSON 2006: +0.77 °COND 2006: +0.94 °CNDJ 2006: +0.94 °CDJF 2007: +0.66 °CJFM 2007: +0.22 °CFMA 2007: -0.12 °CMAM 2007: -0.32 °CAMJ 2007: -0.38 °CMJJ 2007: -0.47 °CJJA 2007: -0.56 °CJAS 2007: -0.81 °CASO 2007: -1.07 °CSON 2007: -1.34 °COND 2007: -1.50 °CNDJ 2007: -1.60 °CDJF 2008: -1.64 °CJFM 2008: -1.52 °CFMA 2008: -1.29 °CMAM 2008: -1.01 °CAMJ 2008: -0.84 °CMJJ 2008: -0.61 °CJJA 2008: -0.37 °CJAS 2008: -0.23 °CASO 2008: -0.24 °CSON 2008: -0.35 °COND 2008: -0.55 °CNDJ 2008: -0.73 °CDJF 2009: -0.85 °CJFM 2009: -0.79 °CFMA 2009: -0.61 °CMAM 2009: -0.33 °CAMJ 2009: +0.01 °CMJJ 2009: +0.28 °CJJA 2009: +0.45 °CJAS 2009: +0.58 °CASO 2009: +0.71 °CSON 2009: +1.01 °COND 2009: +1.36 °CNDJ 2009: +1.56 °CDJF 2010: +1.50 °CJFM 2010: +1.22 °CFMA 2010: +0.84 °CMAM 2010: +0.35 °CAMJ 2010: -0.17 °CMJJ 2010: -0.66 °CJJA 2010: -1.05 °CJAS 2010: -1.35 °CASO 2010: -1.56 °CSON 2010: -1.64 °COND 2010: -1.64 °CNDJ 2010: -1.54 °CDJF 2011: -1.31 °CJFM 2011: -1.04 °CFMA 2011: -0.80 °CMAM 2011: -0.62 °CAMJ 2011: -0.46 °CMJJ 2011: -0.37 °CJJA 2011: -0.43 °CJAS 2011: -0.58 °CASO 2011: -0.79 °CSON 2011: -0.96 °COND 2011: -1.02 °CNDJ 2011: -0.92 °CDJF 2012: -0.72 °CJFM 2012: -0.57 °CFMA 2012: -0.46 °CMAM 2012: -0.36 °CAMJ 2012: -0.17 °CMJJ 2012: +0.06 °CJJA 2012: +0.30 °CJAS 2012: +0.41 °CASO 2012: +0.41 °CSON 2012: +0.31 °COND 2012: +0.13 °CNDJ 2012: -0.10 °CDJF 2013: -0.29 °CJFM 2013: -0.29 °CFMA 2013: -0.21 °CMAM 2013: -0.19 °CAMJ 2013: -0.27 °CMJJ 2013: -0.34 °CJJA 2013: -0.35 °CJAS 2013: -0.28 °CASO 2013: -0.21 °CSON 2013: -0.13 °COND 2013: -0.10 °CNDJ 2013: -0.15 °CDJF 2014: -0.28 °CJFM 2014: -0.32 °CFMA 2014: -0.14 °CMAM 2014: +0.15 °CAMJ 2014: +0.31 °CMJJ 2014: +0.23 °CJJA 2014: +0.10 °CJAS 2014: +0.11 °CASO 2014: +0.28 °CSON 2014: +0.54 °COND 2014: +0.71 °CNDJ 2014: +0.77 °CDJF 2015: +0.69 °CJFM 2015: +0.61 °CFMA 2015: +0.65 °CMAM 2015: +0.81 °CAMJ 2015: +1.02 °CMJJ 2015: +1.25 °CJJA 2015: +1.57 °CJAS 2015: +1.91 °CASO 2015: +2.21 °CSON 2015: +2.47 °COND 2015: +2.64 °CNDJ 2015: +2.75 °CDJF 2016: +2.63 °CJFM 2016: +2.28 °CFMA 2016: +1.71 °CMAM 2016: +1.05 °CAMJ 2016: +0.49 °CMJJ 2016: 0.00 °CJJA 2016: -0.31 °CJAS 2016: -0.50 °CASO 2016: -0.58 °CSON 2016: -0.64 °COND 2016: -0.60 °CNDJ 2016: -0.45 °CDJF 2017: -0.19 °CJFM 2017: -0.02 °CFMA 2017: +0.18 °CMAM 2017: +0.31 °CAMJ 2017: +0.40 °CMJJ 2017: +0.39 °CJJA 2017: +0.19 °CJAS 2017: -0.07 °CASO 2017: -0.34 °CSON 2017: -0.60 °COND 2017: -0.77 °CNDJ 2017: -0.86 °CDJF 2018: -0.77 °CJFM 2018: -0.71 °CFMA 2018: -0.57 °CMAM 2018: -0.39 °CAMJ 2018: -0.13 °CMJJ 2018: +0.06 °CJJA 2018: +0.14 °CJAS 2018: +0.27 °CASO 2018: +0.53 °CSON 2018: +0.81 °COND 2018: +0.97 °CNDJ 2018: +0.92 °CDJF 2019: +0.89 °CJFM 2019: +0.86 °CFMA 2019: +0.84 °CMAM 2019: +0.77 °CAMJ 2019: +0.64 °CMJJ 2019: +0.52 °CJJA 2019: +0.33 °CJAS 2019: +0.19 °CASO 2019: +0.23 °CSON 2019: +0.39 °COND 2019: +0.58 °CNDJ 2019: +0.66 °CDJF 2020: +0.64 °CJFM 2020: +0.63 °CFMA 2020: +0.53 °CMAM 2020: +0.30 °CAMJ 2020: +0.01 °CMJJ 2020: -0.23 °CJJA 2020: -0.36 °CJAS 2020: -0.53 °CASO 2020: -0.85 °CSON 2020: -1.12 °COND 2020: -1.20 °CNDJ 2020: -1.08 °CDJF 2021: -0.91 °CJFM 2021: -0.79 °CFMA 2021: -0.71 °CMAM 2021: -0.55 °CAMJ 2021: -0.39 °CMJJ 2021: -0.30 °CJJA 2021: -0.35 °CJAS 2021: -0.45 °CASO 2021: -0.63 °CSON 2021: -0.76 °COND 2021: -0.91 °CNDJ 2021: -0.87 °CDJF 2022: -0.82 °CJFM 2022: -0.79 °CFMA 2022: -0.86 °CMAM 2022: -0.95 °CAMJ 2022: -0.90 °CMJJ 2022: -0.78 °CJJA 2022: -0.76 °CJAS 2022: -0.87 °CASO 2022: -0.97 °CSON 2022: -0.94 °COND 2022: -0.85 °CNDJ 2022: -0.71 °CDJF 2023: -0.54 °CJFM 2023: -0.29 °CFMA 2023: -0.02 °CMAM 2023: +0.27 °CAMJ 2023: +0.57 °CMJJ 2023: +0.84 °CJJA 2023: +1.12 °CJAS 2023: +1.37 °CASO 2023: +1.60 °CSON 2023: +1.83 °COND 2023: +1.99 °CNDJ 2023: +2.06 °CDJF 2024: +1.92 °CJFM 2024: +1.62 °CFMA 2024: +1.26 °CMAM 2024: +0.82 °CAMJ 2024: +0.49 °CMJJ 2024: +0.22 °CJJA 2024: +0.08 °CJAS 2024: -0.07 °CASO 2024: -0.17 °CSON 2024: -0.21 °COND 2024: -0.30 °CNDJ 2024: -0.42 °CDJF 2025: -0.45 °CJFM 2025: -0.24 °CFMA 2025: -0.06 °CMAM 2025: +0.02 °CAMJ 2025: -0.02 °CMJJ 2025: -0.04 °CJJA 2025: -0.14 °CJAS 2025: -0.28 °CASO 2025: -0.40 °CSON 2025: -0.51 °COND 2025: -0.55 °CNDJ 2025: -0.54 °CDJF 2026: -0.37 °CJFM 2026: -0.14 °CFMA 2026: +0.13 °CMAM 2026: +0.51 °CAMJ 2026: +0.98 °C

Strongest El Niño events on record

Peak ONI per event since 1950, vs. the current event

2014–16
+2.8°
1997–98
+2.4°
1982–83
+2.2°
1972–73
+2.1°
Now
+2.1°
2023–24
+2.1°
1965–66
+2.0°

* Now: latest weekly Niño 3.4 (Peak ONI TBD)

Cities near you

Monitored cities closest to your location, with their risk level

Porto Alegre RSCriticalPelotas RSCriticalSanta Maria RSCriticalCaxias do Sul RSCriticalFlorianópolis SCCriticalBlumenau SCCriticalJoinville SCCriticalItajaí SCCriticalBalneário Camboriú SCCriticalChapecó SCCriticalCuritiba PRCriticalLondrina PRCritical

All monitored cities →

About the data & methodology

Everything on this page traces back to official, citable sources. Here is how to read it.

What is the ONI?

The Oceanic Niño Index is NOAA's official ENSO indicator: a 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific (5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W), relative to a 30-year baseline.

Event thresholds

El Niño: ONI ≥ +0.5 °C for at least five consecutive overlapping seasons. La Niña: ONI ≤ −0.5 °C. Intensity: weak (0.5–0.9), moderate (1.0–1.4), strong (1.5–1.9), very strong (≥ 2.0).

Update cadence

Weekly Niño-region temperatures are published by NOAA every Monday; the ONI updates monthly; the IRI forecast plume is issued around the 19th of each month. This site re-fetches all feeds every 6 hours.

How the AI outlook works

Once a day, the latest readings are sent to a lightweight language model (Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite) which maps them onto well-documented historical El Niño teleconnections, region by region. It never invents numbers and is always labeled. The map zones and severity baselines are human-curated from peer-reviewed literature.

Official monitoring agencies

Your national services first, then the international references this platform aggregates.

International references

NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Global ENSO reference

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IRI, Columbia University

Global ENSO reference

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Copernicus Climate Change Service (EU)

Global ENSO reference

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World Meteorological Organization

Global ENSO reference

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