Detecting your location…
General preparedness. Choose a concern or check your city's forecast.
Use what you own first. A few basics can help during service disruptions. Include food and essential medication for your household; follow local civil protection guidance. If you buy, some affiliate links may earn us a commission at no extra cost to you.
Retailer location, not your forecast city.
Choose a country to see shopping options. The free checklist is available everywhere.
See the free preparedness checklistConfirm by email, then get a weekly update for your cities.
Confirm your email, then get a weekly El Niño digest for your chosen cities.
Live winds, heat, and clouds.
Winds, heat and clouds in near real time
Ocean temperatures are significantly warmer than average, continuing an upward trend. This pattern historically influences weather in regions like Southeast Asia and Australia during their spring and summer. Follow NOAA advisories and your local weather agency for official information. This daily summary uses NOAA observations for the week of Sep 30, 2026.This plain-language summary is generated daily using NOAA observations for the week of Sep 30, 2026.
NOAA adopted RONI in February 2026. ONI and weekly readings measure different things.In February 2026, NOAA CPC adopted the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). Traditional ONI and weekly temperatures use different averaging methods; they are not interchangeable measures of event strength. NOAA's current ENSO advisory and RONI · RONI
Niño 3.4 is +3.2 °C against the 1991–2020 average. Not an official event strength.
In the central equatorial Pacific (Niño 3.4), the weekly sea-surface temperature difference from the 1991–2020 average is +3.2 °C. This reading alone does not establish an event's official strength.
That is warmer than eight weeks ago. El Niño often peaks Nov–Feb; impacts can last longer.
That is warmer than eight weeks ago. Historically, El Niño tends to peak between November and February. Timing varies, and impacts can continue afterward.
Each line is one model. Lines close together mean more confidence.
Each line in the chart below is one forecast model. Where the lines bunch together, confidence is higher; where they spread, less so.
NOAA
NOAAGeoColor imagery from GOES-19 (NOAA/NESDIS) over the Americas, and Geo Colour imagery from Meteosat (EUMETSAT) over Europe, Africa and the Atlantic. Each satellite holds one spot above the equator and sees only that side of the planet, so neither covers the whole world. Updated every 10 minutes.
NOAANOAAGeoColor imagery from GOES-19 (NOAA/NESDIS) over the Americas, and Geo Colour imagery from Meteosat (EUMETSAT) over Europe, Africa and the Atlantic. Each satellite holds one spot above the equator and sees only that side of the planet, so neither covers the whole world. Updated every 10 minutes.
Who to call where you are.
Who to call during floods, fires or storm emergencies, based on your location.
We do not have verified emergency numbers for this location. Choose your country if listed, or consult your local authorities. We do not show another country's numbers instead.
Numbers are national defaults; some regions use local variants. Confirm with local authorities.
Historical El Niño patterns, not live warnings. Impacts depend on the season and other drivers.
Selected historical El Niño patterns, not current warnings or complete global coverage. Regional exposure ratings are fixed reference categories, not live forecasts. Impacts depend on season and other climate drivers.
Region-by-region read from the latest NOAA numbers.
Region-by-region assessment generated from the latest NOAA readings
Warm Pacific waters can bring heavy rain
The coast of Peru and Ecuador tends to see torrential rain, flash floods, and landslides when the Pacific is warmer than normal. This region is historically the hardest hit during El Niño events.
Extreme rain likely in southern Brazil
Southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina often experience persistent extreme rainfall due to a strengthened jet stream when the Pacific is warmer than normal. The 2023-24 floods in Rio Grande do Sul are a prime example.
Drought and fires may hit Amazon
The Amazon basin and Northeast Brazil tend to suffer severe drought, low rivers, fires, and crop failures when the Pacific is warmer than normal, as fewer rain-producing storms occur.
Less rain, more fire risk
Colombia and Venezuela often face below-normal rainfall, impacting hydropower and agriculture, with a heightened risk of wildfires in Andean valleys when the Pacific is warmer than normal.
Dry Corridor faces harvest failures
Central America's Dry Corridor tends to experience failed rains when the Pacific is warmer than normal, threatening maize and bean harvests and worsening food insecurity.
Drought fuels fires in Indonesia
Indonesia and Malaysia often face severe drought, drying peatlands and fueling large forest fires and haze when the Pacific is warmer than normal, leading to reduced crop yields.
Bushfire danger rises in Australia
Eastern Australia tends to experience reduced rainfall and heatwaves when the Pacific is warmer than normal, increasing bushfire danger and straining water supplies along the coast.
Monsoon rains may weaken
The Indian subcontinent's monsoon region often sees weakened southwest monsoon rains when the Pacific is warmer than normal, stressing water and power supplies.
Delayed rains impact Philippines
The Philippines tends to experience delayed rains and a harsher dry season when the Pacific is warmer than normal, affecting rice production and hydropower, with water rationing common.
Wetter winters expected in South US
The southern United States often experiences wetter, stormier winters with flood risks when the Pacific is warmer than normal, as a stronger jet stream steers storms across California and the Gulf Coast.
Flooding possible in Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa tends to see heavier October to December rains when the Pacific is warmer than normal, bringing flooding to Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia's lowlands, often after drought.
Summer rains may fail in Southern Africa
Southern Africa, including the maize belt, often faces failing summer rains when the Pacific is warmer than normal, leading to crop losses and power supply stress.
Drought and heat hit Northern Mexico
Northern and Central Mexico tend to experience drought and heat during El Niño winters when the Pacific is warmer than normal, stressing reservoirs, agriculture, and city water supplies.
Droughts may hit Mekong basin
Mainland Southeast Asia, particularly the Mekong basin, tends to face droughts when the Pacific is warmer than normal, causing low rivers, saltwater intrusion, and pressure on rice crops.
Generated daily from live NOAA data. Experimental, not an official forecast. Consult your national weather service and civil protection.
Every bar is a 3-month ONI season since 1980.
Every bar is a 3-month season. Red above +0.5 °C is El Niño territory; blue below −0.5 °C is La Niña. Source: NOAA CPC.
Historical three-month ONI peaks, not weekly readings.
Highest three-month traditional ONI per event since 1950. Weekly readings are not ranked against these seasonal peaks.
Monitored cities closest to you.
Monitored cities closest to your location, with their risk level
How we read official NOAA and IRI data.
Everything on this page traces back to official, citable sources. Here is how to read it.
Traditional ONI averages three months. NOAA adopted the relative index RONI in February 2026.
Traditional ONI is NOAA's three-month mean of sea surface temperature anomalies in Niño 3.4 (5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W), relative to a 30-year baseline. In February 2026 CPC adopted RONI, which adjusts for tropical background warming, for official ENSO monitoring. A weekly anomaly is a separate measurement.
Historical ONI events need five overlapping seasons at +0.5 °C or above (or −0.5 °C or below), not one weekly reading.
This historical ONI chart groups five or more consecutive overlapping seasons at or above +0.5 °C (El Niño) or at or below −0.5 °C (La Niña). This is not a diagnosis from one weekly reading. NOAA's current advisory also assesses the atmosphere and now uses the relative index RONI.
Weekly ocean temperatures on Mondays. ONI monthly. IRI plume around the 19th. We refresh every 6 hours.
Weekly Niño-region temperatures are published by NOAA every Monday; the ONI updates monthly; the IRI forecast plume is issued around the 19th of each month. This site checks every source for updates every 6 hours.
Once a day a small model maps live NOAA numbers onto documented El Niño patterns. Zones are human-curated.
Once a day, the latest readings are mapped onto well-documented historical El Niño effects, region by region. Numbers are never invented and the outlook is always labeled. The map zones and severity baselines are human-curated from peer-reviewed literature.
National services first, then the global references we use.
Your national services first, then the international references this platform aggregates.
