Detecting your location…
General preparedness. Choose a concern or check your city's forecast.
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Retailer location, not your forecast city.
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See the free preparedness checklistConfirm by email. Then a weekly update for your cities.
Confirm your email, then get a weekly El Niño digest for your chosen cities.
Live winds, heat, and clouds.
Winds, heat and clouds in near real time
The equatorial Pacific remains warmer than normal, a typical El Niño condition. Historically that shifts rainfall worldwide: floods in some regions, drought in others. Follow your national weather service for official warnings.
NOAA CPC adopted the relative index RONI in February 2026. Traditional ONI and weekly temperatures use different averaging methods; they are not interchangeable measures of event strength. NOAA's current ENSO advisory and RONI · RONI
The weekly Niño 3.4 temperature difference is +2.7 °C versus 1991–2020. This is a weekly ocean reading, not an official event-strength classification. Warming Events like this often peak Nov–Jan. Impacts can linger.Events that develop like this one historically peak between November and January, with impacts continuing for months after.
Each line is one model. Tight bunch = higher confidence.
Each line in the chart below is one forecast model. Where the lines bunch together, confidence is higher; where they spread, less so.
GeoColor imagery from the GOES-19 satellite, NOAA/NESDIS. Updated every 10 minutes.
GeoColor imagery from the GOES-19 satellite, NOAA/NESDIS. Updated every 10 minutes.
Who to call where you are.
Who to call during floods, fires or storm emergencies, based on your location.
We do not have verified emergency numbers for this location. Choose your country if listed, or consult your local authorities. No other country's numbers are substituted.
Numbers are national defaults; some regions use local variants. Confirm with local authorities.
Selected historical El Niño patterns, not current warnings or complete global coverage. Regional exposure ratings are fixed reference categories, not live forecasts. Impacts depend on season and other climate drivers.
Region-by-region read from the latest NOAA numbers.
Region-by-region assessment generated from the latest NOAA readings
Extreme Flooding Likely
Very strong El Niño conditions (ONI 1.80°C, Niño 3.4 2.7°C) indicate a high likelihood of severe flooding along the Peru and Ecuador coast. Heavy rainfall will impact coastal communities, infrastructure, and agriculture. Confidence is high due to established teleconnections.
Severe Flood Risk Elevated
The very strong El Niño suggests increased rainfall, raising the risk of severe flooding in Southern Brazil, Uruguay, and NE Argentina. Expect impacts on agriculture, urban areas, and transportation networks. High confidence based on historical El Niño events.
Drought Conditions Possible
While typically associated with drought, the very strong El Niño may lead to reduced rainfall in the Amazon and Northeast Brazil. This could exacerbate existing dry conditions, impacting water resources and agriculture. Moderate confidence due to regional variability.
Drought Conditions Persist
Very strong El Niño teleconnections point to drier conditions across Colombia and Venezuela. Drought risk is elevated, potentially affecting water supply, agriculture, and energy production. Moderate confidence, as impacts can vary.
Drought Risk in Dry Corridor
The very strong El Niño suggests a heightened risk of drought conditions in Central America's Dry Corridor. Expect impacts on agriculture, food security, and water availability. Moderate confidence due to typical El Niño patterns.
Severe Drought Expected
Very strong El Niño conditions (ONI 1.80°C, Niño 3.4 2.7°C) strongly favor drought across Indonesia and Malaysia. Expect significant impacts on agriculture, water resources, and increased fire risk. High confidence based on established teleconnections.
Heatwave Risk Increases
Very strong El Niño conditions often lead to increased temperatures and heatwaves in Eastern Australia. This poses risks to public health, agriculture, and ecosystems. Moderate confidence, as specific timing and intensity vary.
Monsoon Weakening Possible
Very strong El Niño events can disrupt the Indian monsoon, leading to drier conditions and drought in parts of India and Pakistan. This impacts agriculture and water resources. Moderate confidence due to complex monsoon dynamics.
Drought Conditions Likely
The very strong El Niño suggests a significant risk of drought across the Philippines. Expect impacts on agriculture, water supply, and potentially increased wildfire activity. Moderate confidence based on typical El Niño patterns.
Storm Track Shift Possible
Very strong El Niño can alter storm tracks, potentially leading to increased storminess and rainfall in the Southern US. Impacts could affect infrastructure and agriculture. Moderate confidence due to shifting weather patterns.
Flood Risk Elevated
Very strong El Niño conditions often correlate with increased rainfall and flood risk in the Horn of Africa. Expect impacts on communities, infrastructure, and agriculture. Moderate confidence due to regional variability.
Drought Conditions Likely
Very strong El Niño events typically lead to drier conditions and increased drought risk across Southern Africa. Impacts are expected on agriculture, water resources, and food security. Moderate confidence based on historical patterns.
Heat and Dryness Expected
Very strong El Niño conditions suggest elevated temperatures and potentially drier conditions across Northern & Central Mexico. This poses risks to water resources and agriculture. Moderate confidence due to regional variations.
Drought Conditions Possible
Very strong El Niño teleconnections indicate a potential for reduced rainfall and drought conditions across Mainland Southeast Asia. Impacts could affect agriculture and water resources. Moderate confidence due to regional variability.
Generated daily from live NOAA data. Experimental, not an official forecast. Consult your national meteorological service and civil defense.
Every bar is a 3-month ONI season since 1980.
Every bar is a 3-month season. Red above +0.5 °C is El Niño territory; blue below −0.5 °C is La Niña. Source: NOAA CPC.
Historical three-month ONI peaks, not weekly readings.
Highest three-month traditional ONI per event since 1950. Weekly readings are not ranked against these seasonal peaks.
Monitored cities closest to you.
Monitored cities closest to your location, with their risk level
How we read official NOAA and IRI data.
Everything on this page traces back to official, citable sources. Here is how to read it.
Traditional ONI averages three months. NOAA adopted the relative index RONI in February 2026.
Traditional ONI is NOAA's three-month mean of sea surface temperature anomalies in Niño 3.4 (5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W), relative to a 30-year baseline. In February 2026 CPC adopted RONI, which adjusts for tropical background warming, for official ENSO monitoring. A weekly anomaly is a separate measurement.
Historical ONI events require five overlapping seasons above or below ±0.5 °C, not one weekly reading.
This historical ONI chart groups five or more consecutive overlapping seasons at or above +0.5 °C (El Niño) or at or below −0.5 °C (La Niña). This is not a diagnosis from one weekly reading. NOAA's current advisory also assesses the atmosphere and now uses the relative index RONI.
Weekly SST on Mondays. ONI monthly. IRI plume around the 19th. We refresh every 6 hours.
Weekly Niño-region temperatures are published by NOAA every Monday; the ONI updates monthly; the IRI forecast plume is issued around the 19th of each month. This site re-fetches all feeds every 6 hours.
Once a day a small model maps live NOAA numbers onto documented El Niño patterns. Zones are human-curated.
Once a day, the latest readings are mapped onto well-documented historical El Niño teleconnections, region by region. Numbers are never invented and the outlook is always labeled. The map zones and severity baselines are human-curated from peer-reviewed literature.
National services first, then the global references we use.
Your national services first, then the international references this platform aggregates.